Side eyeing the JOLTS Report.... like always
The Jolts Report and The U.S. Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics (NES) should be best-friends.. not distant cousins
It's 7:30 am in Atlanta, GA one of the most beautiful, thriving cities in the world. No music, no vibes. Just me and this JOLTS report,,, staring each other down, as we do - month after month.
Non-employers make up most of our minority companies. Think about it. That local startup, that hairdresser, lash and wig technician - how is JOLTS capturing the hiring patterns for these businesses? This deeply matters because the reports we use and the tools we use to measure them totally dismiss most startups, black and brown businesses, minority firms, entrepreneurs, individual contractors, self-employed individuals, gig workers, single-member LLCs, and independent contractors (if they have no payroll employees). These businesses make up over 80% of all U.S. business establishments. Over 80%… ahm
Which means when the feds make decisions or provide benefits, these rarely, deeply nor swiftly support the firms that are cooking (literally stewing up the building blocks of our future). And I can almost guarantee you the trickle-down economics that we are hoping reaches these firms are slow or never make it. Which to me, just means our economy's potential buffers too long.
So what I'm suggesting is that we get really excited about creating new tools that measure non-employer job behavior. As folks are displaced from their jobs and forced into the gumbo of 1099 work and/or being someone who pays 1099 workers etc., this data and these measurement tools will matter more and more.
Skip this section if you’re not into data like that (you better not skip this)
Quick fact: The Fed uses the unemployment and labor force participation rate to influence interest rates. This is why this matters.
Area Effect of Higher Interest Rates
How unemployment, wage growth, and labor participation rate influences the Fed:
Strong payroll gains + fast wage growth = signs of overheating → Tightening bias
Soft job growth or rising unemployment = economic slowdown → Dovish (rate cuts or holding steady)
Wouldn't it be fun to see a more comprehensive report (or addendum) that includes non-employer statistics? Over 80% is too hard a number to ignore as irrelevant to the economy, and these hiring patterns affect a large subset of our population.
Don't you want to know what will happen to thousands of rideshare workers that are in threat of being displaced by advancements like Waymo. I'm not against Waymo (I don’t even own a vehicle) - I just love (seriously it turns me on) proactive data and statistics. I see these movements every day as the CEO of Vower but y'all deserve to see it too. How long do our workers stay underemployed, unemployed, or discouraged... and where are they working ?? What are they doing with their time in between jobs? Do they ever return to the labor force? Are they in a bootcamp learning new skills? Are we voluntarily deskilling our nation or creating permanent economic displacement?
P.S. I am a proud Mid-west girl from Michigan. Daughter of a long line of blue-collar, manufacturing workers. So you learn to pay attention to these sorts of shifts in employment.
I can admit… I wanted to stop here… then the shrooms kicked in
All is not lost…
The U.S. Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics (NES) data helps identify trends in self-employment and microbusiness growth, making it a valuable tool for tailoring grants, economic programs, and services to underserved entrepreneurs. It’s especially useful for tracking regional gig economy shifts and designing equitable support for nontraditional business owners.
We can use NES data to track gig economy trends, identify regional and industry gaps, target microbusiness funding, inform inclusive policy, and shape products or programs for nontraditional entrepreneurs & job seekers. Yes we capture 1099 employment, but that is just the surface. There are large amounts of missing data points that can support 1099 workers and 1099 non-employers up the ladder to parity.
I can imagine this being very helpful to cities like Atlanta, Dallas, Seattle, Charlotte, or Houston (where SMBs are popping out everyday)…and this is what we want btw- bustling cities where folks have the spirit of entrepreneurship.
This data gives legs and eyes to what I see every day- entrepreneurs, SMBs, startups in their scrappy ingenuity. Hiring friends, family, using gig apps, hiring interns, volunteers, apprentices, picking up our amigos at that Home Depot by that QuikTrip (you know which one I'm talking about).
In Closing…
If we are ever to have a shot at real GDP growth that is both bottoms up and influenced by our most nascent businesses, we need more data that will support our most promising and most vulnerable populations: our small business owners and the in-between, just-starting or re-starting talent pool.
Ok that's it for now... Just a quick brain-gasm before my morning workout.
I'll check back in to chat more specifically about the JOLTS report and The Fed's comments on labor and the labor market.
But before I go, quick pop quiz
What does the unemployment rate measure? (I need you to know this like the back of your hand)
The unemployment rate measures those who choose (not forced) to be in the labor force, seeking employment and not finding it.
What is the definition of the Labor Force:
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) measures the percentage of the working-age population (typically ages 16 and older) that is actively working or actively seeking work.
The Labor Force is NOT: students, incarcerated, hospitalized, military, or the underage population
Ok bye